Posts Tagged ‘uruguay’

World Cup Roundup

14/07/2010

So suggesting a bet on Holland in the final meant the bet of the day running total ended 0.77 units down, which isn’t awful considering two-thirds of the group stage were missed. In better punditry many of the pre-tournament tips came off. Of the more impressive ideas, I suggested Germany to reach the semi-finals @ 12/5, Argentina to get nine points in their group @ 12/5, Uruguay and Mexico to go through in group A @ 13/1 and Uruguay as an each way bet @ 66/1.

I wrote that England could well suffer a second round knock-out, while tipping Holland @ 9/1 almost came off. The goalscorer tips were a touch unlucky too with each way suggestions Klose (33/1) and Suarez (100/1) just missing out on the top four.  Enough gloating (there were plenty of dud tips too after all) and time for a few highlights and lowlights.

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Best Game: England vs Germany had controversy, some great football, good goals and it dispelled the hype surrounding so many of England’s stars.

Worst Game: Most of the ones in the first week.

Best Goal: Tshabalala’s in the opening match was great for the moment and Van Bronckhorst in the semi-final was great for the pureness of the strike but I think Villa’s first against Honduras tops both.

Worst Miss: Yakubu vs South Korea. Dear oh dear.

Most Dramatic 5 Minutes: Spain vs Paraguay gave it a good try, with three penalties in the space of a few minutes, but you can’t beat the end of extra-time in the Uruguay vs Ghana match. Goalmouth scramble, handball on the line and red card, missed penalty with a semi-final place up for grabs, undignified celebrations by the man sent off and then a penalty shoot-out shortly after. Wow.

Best Pundit: Clarence Seedorf. There weren’t many to choose from but he was insightful and refreshing. Some good features too.

Hero: Paul the psychic octopus.

Villain: Take your pick from Suarez, the Jabulani ball or the French team going on strike. Oh and James Corden too.

Best XI Of The Tournament: Casillas; Lahm, Puyol, Lugano, Coentrao; Schweinsteiger, Xavi, Sneijder; Mueller, Forlan, Villa.

Worst XI Of The Tournament: Green; Otamendi, Terry, Cannavaro, Evra; Melo, Kaka, Ribery; Anelka, Rooney, Torres.

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T.

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World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 30

10/07/2010

Running Total: -0.57 units

Spain put in their best performance of the finals so far in beating Germany on Wednesday and it means we’re almost back in profit. I was looking through the betting post I wrote before the finals started and there’s plenty which has come true. I’ll do a full write-up after the final.

Tonight we see the 3rd/4th place playoff between the losing semi-finalists Germany and Uruguay. These games are traditionally very open as neither team cares that much, having fallen so close to the final. Indeed Germany will be looking to finish third for the second straight World Cup having beating Portugal 3-1 in 2006.

Betting on over 2.5 goals should be a given – the last playoff to feature under three goals was way back in 1974 when my Polish brothers beat Brazil 1-0 with a goal from top scorer Grzegorz Lato. Justifiably the odds on this are only around 4/5. Over 3.5 goals is about 15/8.

Uruguay do have a reputation as quite a defensive team but with Diego Forlan and to a lesser extent Luis Suarez still technically in the running to be top-scorer you’d have to think they’ll come out and play. Germany of course are the top scorers in the tournament and themselves have two players after the Golden Boot; Miroslav Klose and the returning Thomas Mueller.

As much as I’d like Suarez to get a couple of goals and win my bet on him to be in the top four goalscorers @18/1 I think it will be a bit of a stretch. On the flip side, Klose needs just two goals to be all time record top goalscorer ahead of Ronaldo and I think Germany will be doing all they can to ensure he gets it. He’s 6/1 with BlueSq to score twice and beat the record (quite tempting) while he’s 6/5 to equal it.

Bet of the day:

Miroslav Klose to score two (or more) goals vs Uruguay @ 6/1

Edit: Klose isn’t starting due to an injured back so let’s go with over 2.5 goals at 4/5.

T.

World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 27

07/07/2010

Running Total: -2.2 units

Bit unlucky last night as Uruguay’s late second goal ruined the handicap bet on Holland to win -1 goal. At least the stake was returned though.

I’m finding it really hard to call tonight’s second semi between Spain and Germany but I think ultimately the Spanish will have a bit too much for Jogi Low’s side. Spain have played lots of quite defensive teams so far while against England and Argentina Germany could do as they pleased. That’s not to say Germany can’t beat Spain but I just think they’ll find it more difficult against a more tactically organised side. I could spend ages previewing this but I’d rather just enjoy the game!

Bet of the day:

Spain to beat Germany @ 13/8

T.

World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 26

06/07/2010

Running Total: -2.2 units

Hurrah! A tip came through. Once again Miroslav Klose deserves thanks as his two goals helped Germany score the four that were needed to win our bet of over 3.5 goals in the Germany v Argentina match. The running total is still in the red but looks a bit healthier.

Today sees the first semi final between Holland and Uruguay with the South Americans a massive 6/1 to win the match in 90 minutes. Even them qualifying is a generous 3/1. The bookies obviously feel that the suspended Suarez and injured Lodeiro will not be adequatley replaced. Captain Lugano is also a doubt.

Holland are no real value at 4/6 but I’ve seen worse odds this World Cup. It’s also very difficult to work out exactly how good the Dutch are, as I wouldn’t say they’ve been at their absolute best in any of the games so far. The handicap bet could be interesting with Holland -1 goal at 11/8. This still isn’t that good and you may be better off trying to forecast the score.

In that regard, I think there’s a good chance of it ending either 1-0 or 2-0 to Holland (5/1 & 13/2) – I think Uruguay will struggle to score without Suarez but their defence has only conceded twice all tournament.

Can Sneijder score again? 13/5 says he can. You can get 13/8 on Van Persie too, despite his relatively lean tournament thus far.

All in all I’m a bit stuck but I think Holland will have too much for Uruguay so will go with the -1 goal handicap bet. At least if they only win by one we don’t lose any money.

Bet of the day:

Holland -1 goal to beat Uruguay @ 11/8

T.

World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 22

02/07/2010

Running Total: -3.8 units

Hmm it seems any bet I suggest on here is bound to lose. Spain had to wait until the second half before taking the lead against Portugal, therefore scuppering day 19’s tip.

Today we have Holland v Brazil and Ghana v Uruguay. The former should be a good match but I’ve lost count of how many times that’s been predicted. I don’t think Holland should be as high as 7/2 to win that match but Brazil have looked very good so far.

Ghana have done brilliantly so far but in the interests of my Suarez top goalscorer bet I’ll be hoping for a Uruguay win. Let’s go with him to score anytime.

Bet of the day:

Luis Suarez to score anytime vs Ghana @ 2/1.

T.

World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 19

29/06/2010

Running Total: -2.8 units

The last tip before I left didn’t win as Spain shockingly lost 1-0 against Switzerland but plenty has happened since then. Lots of my each-way top scorer bets are potentially looking good (Klose, Suarez, Fabiano) while Germany have reached the quarter finals thus putting some money in the bank.

Back to the matter at hand and it’s two tricky games to call today – Paraguay v Japan and Spain v Portugal. I didn’t see much of the first two teams while on holiday so I think I’ll leave that game well alone (though over 2.5 goals @6/4 would be the choice if forced).

The evening game looks like a potential classic, though Spain are heavy favourites at 11/10. It’s tempting to put a small bet on Portugal given they’re as high as 10/3 to win the match, however I think their lack of a proper striker will be their downfall again. David Villa is the man in form for Spain and you could back him to score but I’ll take a risky bet and go for Spain to be winning at half-time and full-time.

Bet of the day:

Spain to beat Portugal at half-time and full-time @ 9/4.

T.

World Cup Bet Of The Day – Day 1

11/06/2010

A feature I’m going to try and do every day, at least until I go on holiday. I’ll keep a running total and see how it ends up at the end of the tournament.

Today’s pick is Uruguay to beat France in the evening game. I wrote earlier about how I thought France were a decent shout to get knocked out in the group stages and thus I think the price on Uruguay is far too high.

The French have been experimenting with a new formation and a 1-0 warm-up defeat to China suggests it’s not quite settled.

Uruguay have a great strike partnership in Forlan and Suarez (almost 80 goals between them this season) and I think the two of them can cause some serious problems for the French defence.

Bet of the day:
Uruguay to beat France @ 14/5.

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T.

The Big World Cup Betting Post

11/06/2010

This afternoon 32 teams begin the fight to be crowned World Cup winners on July 11th. Well, strictly speaking only four teams play today but let’s not be pedantic. There’s a wealth of potential bets to place and some potentially big winnings to be had. I’m sure everyone has their opinion on what will happen so here’s my pick.

Eyes on the prize.

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Favourites

The top three teams in the winner market are Spain at 4/1, Brazil at 5/1 and Argentina at 8/1. There’s not a great deal of value there but of the three I have Brazil as my favourite to win. They’re solid at the back with all the Inter defenders and also play two defensive midfielders to back them up. Up front Kaka is still a great player while Luis Fabiano is an effective striker.

If all three of those teams win their groups, Spain are scheduled to face Argentina in one semi-final which makes it trickier to back them over Brazil. You could go with naming the finalists – Brazil/Spain is about 10/1 while Brazil/Argentina is as high as a tempting 18/1.

Personally I think I’ll be going for all three teams to qualify from their groups with a maximum nine points. In that regard Brazil are 9/4, Spain 6/5 and Argentina 12/5. The risky treble is about 24/1.

Favourites to double up.

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If Things Go Their Way

Here we have the likes of England, Holland, Germany and Italy. All good sides but probably not a match for the three favourites. Betting on England is always a mug’s game in my eyes. The bookies have them down at 8/1 which is mainly to protect themselves from Dave the Daily Star reader who puts heart before head.

That said Capello and a fit Rooney is a far better prospect then the Eriksson and unfit Rooney of four years ago. In reality I think the semi’s (11/8) are the absolute limit for England but there’s a potentially tricky second round match against the group B runners-up which could see them knocked out early.

I like the look of Holland and they have some brilliant attacking options. Whether their defence holds up against top opposition is another story and whichever way they look at it they’re going to meet Spain or Brazil in a quarter-final. However, what’s betting without some fun risk involved so why not a cheeky pound on them to win the whole thing at 9/1? Thinking about it I think they’ll be a good team to bet on a match by match basis come the knock-out stages.  Personally I’ll be looking at Robin van Persie to do some goalscoring damage. More on that later.

Never write off Germany. 12/5 for the semi finals. I’ll have some of that.

Keep looking Wayne, you won't win it.

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Potential Flops

In my mind there are two teams who are ripe to flop completely and not qualify from their group – France and Portugal. I have different reasons for both. France are an ageing team and somehow still have Raymond Domenech as their coach. Some of his decisions are baffling. In fact no, most of his decisions are baffling. The senior players still have too much say and there’s talk of infighting within the squad.

Their group is on paper not too hard which is why this is an interesting bet. Uruguay should qualify and part of me thinks that South Africa will get a win in the opening game and somehow find a way to qualify in second. I’m sure Sepp will sort something out… The odds aren’t great – only 2/1 so maybe it’s better value to bet on the Uruguay and Mexico/South Africa forecast instead (13/1 or 21/1). On the other hand all the great players in their squad might have one last great hurrah.

Portugal in contrast are in the so-called group of death – Brazil, Ivory Coast and North Korea being their opponents. Brazil will top this group so I think it’s a straight fight for second between two of the biggest divas in the World Cup; Drogba and Ronaldo. I think the latter loses out, thus a Brazil/Ivory Coast forecast is a nice 11/4.

This will happen again. Though without Big Phil.

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Each Way Long Shots

Serbia and Uruguay seem to be getting a lot of love as teams who could go further than expected. They’re on the right side of the draw in terms of ‘only’ having Brazil instead of Spain and Argentina. At 40/1 and 66/1 respectively, they’re fantastic each-way bets. Both are technically good with differing strengths; Serbia having a top defence while Uruguay have Forlan and Suarez up front.

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Sharpshooters

Top goalscorer bets are always fun and if you consider that six goals was the winning total for six straight World Cups from 1978 to 1998 you only need a bit of luck to win on a high-priced each way bet. Germany’s Miroslav Klose won with five goals in 2006 and he again is fantastic each way value this time round at a general 33/1.

Holland have a group without any particularly defensive teams meaning Robin van Persie could fill his boots and be overall winner at 12/1. If you look at who’s facing the weakest teams (North Korea and New Zealand) then perhaps Luis Fabiano of Brazil at 10/1  or Italy’s Di Natale  at 50/1 could be worth a shout. Suarez of Uruguay can be found as high as 100/1 and if you think three goals was enough for second last time round it’s worth placing a pound or two on him.

Your top goalscorer. Maybe...

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T.

World Cup Qualifiers Betting

13/10/2009

A big night tomorrow as things get finalised in terms of World Cup qualifying. 18 teams have already joined hosts South Africa and another eight will be known by the early hours of Thursday morning. After tomorrow we’ll just have the four European and one  South/North American playoffs to get through in November before the 32 are set.

There are lots of meaningless matches now that many sides have qualified but let’s look at the interesting games that remain and see if there’s any value in betting.

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Europe

Looking through the groups only three have anything left to be decided. In Group Six, Ukraine just need to beat pointless Andorra to ensure a playoff spot so no value there. Group Two sees Switzerland needing a point to win the group ahead of Greece who will beat Luxembourg at home and otherwise join them on 20 points. The odds aren’t great but 1.8 on Switzerland to beat Israel might be worth including on your betting slip.

Group Three sees Slovakia lead Slovenia lead the Czech Republic. Slovenia will end the Czech Republic’s hopes and go top with victory over San Marino leaving Slovakia in all likelihood needing an away victory over Poland to maintain automatic qualification (their goal difference isn’t good enough for the draw). Poland have been frustratingly poor and have thrown away a good position with a draw and two straight defeats. With that in mind I fancy Slovakia to beat Poland @ 2.2.

Elsewhere I fancy Spain to complete a clean sweep of their group and beat Bosnia away @ 2.32.

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South America

Uruguay v Argentina is the main attraction here and indeed anywhere. It’s pretty simple for Diego Maradona and his men. Avoid defeat and they’re through automatically (barring a super Ecuador away win in Chile). If they lose and Ecuador don’t win, it’s a playoff against Honduras or Costa Rica. If they lose and Ecuador win, they’re out completely and Lionel Messi puts his boots up for the summer.

Looking at the form book, it seems unlikely Argentina will win, given their one away victory in qualifying and Uruguay’s one home defeat. They did win in the reverse fixture 2-1 but I don’t see a repeat. The temptation to bet on a nervy draw at 3.3 is interesting but I think it might be safer looking at over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 or even over 3.5 goals @ 11/4.

Will we see this again?

Will we see this again?

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Africa

Can’t find any odds listed on the major bookies. Shenanigans!

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North America

The USA have qualified and face Costa Rica in their final game. Despite needing a victory, I don’t think Costa Rica are capable of beating USA away so let’s go with USA win at evens.

A few bets then but nothing to really get excited over. The playoffs should be more interesting!

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T.


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